LIVE FEED
AVG RENT GROWTH+3.8% YoY+0.2%/CAP RATE (NATAVG)5.15%+12bps/10Y TREASURY4.42%-8bps/MULTIFAMILY STARTS328K-6.1%/ABSORPTION RATE92.4%+1.2%/EMPLOYMENT GROWTH+1.9%+0.1%/CPI SHELTER+5.1%-0.4%/NATIONAL VACANCY5.2%-0.3%/AVG RENT GROWTH+3.8% YoY+0.2%/CAP RATE (NATAVG)5.15%+12bps/10Y TREASURY4.42%-8bps/MULTIFAMILY STARTS328K-6.1%/ABSORPTION RATE92.4%+1.2%/EMPLOYMENT GROWTH+1.9%+0.1%/CPI SHELTER+5.1%-0.4%/NATIONAL VACANCY5.2%-0.3%/
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Market Forecasts

5-year forward projections for multifamily fundamentals across leading indicators.

Scenario
Metric

Base Case — 5 Year Forecast

Rent Growth · Base Case projection

78% conf
246820252026202720282029

Dashed line = historical mean reference. Shaded band = confidence range.

Market-Level Forecasts

MARKET1Y RENT3Y RENTSIGNAL
Austin, TX+5.2%+14.1%84% conf
Nashville, TN+4.7%+12.8%81% conf
Phoenix, AZ+3.1%+9.2%73% conf
Denver, CO+2.4%+7.1%62% conf
Chicago, IL-0.2%+1.5%58% conf
San Francisco, CA+0.8%+3.5%55% conf

Key Forecast Drivers

Supply DeclineHigh

Permit pullback of 18% since peak will reduce deliveries by 2026–27, supporting occupancy and pricing power.

Employment Cohort GrowthHigh

18–34 age employment at +1.9% YoY — primary renter demographic expanding at above-average pace.

Rate EnvironmentMedium

10Y Treasury anchoring at 4.0–4.5% range through 2025 — cap rate normalization gradual, not sudden.

Debt Maturity WallMedium

~$32B floating-rate debt maturing in H2 2025 creates potential forced sellers — opportunity for equity buyers.

Affordability CeilingLow

Renter income ratios approaching 30%+ in top metros — limits ability to push rent beyond 4–5% in premium markets.

Forecasts are generated using proprietary models incorporating supply pipeline data, demographic trends, capital markets conditions, and macroeconomic factors. All projections carry inherent uncertainty. Not investment advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions based on this data.